Methodology
The research and reasoning behind every Tessera signal.
Backtest Disclosure & Performance Reporting
Full methodology, assumptions, limitations, and regime-dependence caveats for every backtest result published by Tessera Research. Read this before drawing conclusions from any number on this site.
·6 min readPrice Return vs Total Return: Why Dividends Matter
A 5% yield compounding for 10 years is a different investment than a 0% yielder with the same price chart. Here's why Tessera tracks dividends per-share — and why your portfolio analytics should too.
·6 min readPosition Sizing and Stop Losses: The Exits That Actually Matter
Entries are 20% of returns. Position sizing and exits are the other 80%. Here's the discipline Tessera bakes in: 7% max position, regime-aware trailing stops, and when not to sell.
·7 min readRelative vs Absolute Valuation: When Each One Lies to You
Absolute valuation says what a stock is worth. Relative valuation says what it's worth compared to peers. Neither is always right — here's when to trust which.
·7 min readThe Three Ways Backtests Lie: Survivorship, Look-Ahead, and Overfitting
Most public backtests look great and predict nothing. The three biases that make them dishonest — and how Tessera's engine avoids each.
·10 min readThe Target Book: Rebuilding the Ideal Portfolio Every Rebalance
Swapping the weakest holding for the strongest challenger sounds smart. It's also fragile — it can't see the whole board. Here's why Tessera rebuilds the entire target portfolio from scratch every rebalance, and trades only the difference.
·11 min readRegime-Aware Investing: Bull, Bear, and Crisis Detection
Most models assume the market has one mode. It doesn't. Here's the breadth-based regime detector Tessera uses to decide when to lean in, pull back, or step aside.
·8 min readQuality Screening: The 24 Factors Behind the Tessera Rating
Value traps are cheap stocks you shouldn't own. Quality screening filters them out. Here are the 24 factors Tessera grades every US stock on — and why each matters.
·11 min readRelative P/E Sector Analysis: Why Absolute Multiples Mislead
A 15x P/E stock in tech can be cheap and a 15x P/E utility can be expensive. Here's how to quantify that — and why Tessera's screener leans on sector-relative valuation.
·9 min read