Methodology
The research and reasoning behind every Tessera signal.
Backtest Disclosure & Performance Reporting
Full methodology, assumptions, limitations, and regime-dependence caveats for every backtest result published by Tessera Research. Read this before drawing conclusions from any number on this site.
·6 min readPrice Return vs Total Return: Why Dividends Matter
A 5% yield compounding for 10 years is a different investment than a 0% yielder with the same price chart. Here's why Tessera tracks dividends per-share — and why your portfolio analytics should too.
·6 min readPosition Sizing and Stop Losses: The Exits That Actually Matter
Entries are 20% of returns. Position sizing and exits are the other 80%. Here's the discipline Tessera bakes in: 7% max position, regime-aware trailing stops, and when not to sell.
·7 min readRelative vs Absolute Valuation: When Each One Lies to You
Absolute valuation says what a stock is worth. Relative valuation says what it's worth compared to peers. Neither is always right — here's when to trust which.
·7 min readThe Three Ways Backtests Lie: Survivorship, Look-Ahead, and Overfitting
Most public backtests look great and predict nothing. The three biases that make them dishonest — and how Tessera's engine avoids each.
·10 min readThe Target Book: Rebuilding the Ideal Portfolio Every Rebalance
Swapping the weakest holding for the strongest challenger sounds smart. It's also fragile — it can't see the whole board. Here's why Tessera rebuilds the entire target portfolio from scratch every rebalance, and trades only the difference.
·11 min readRegime-Aware Investing: Bull, Bear, and Crisis Detection
Most models assume the market has one mode. It doesn't. Here's the breadth-based regime detector Tessera uses to decide when to lean in, pull back, or step aside.
·8 min readQuality Screening: The Factors Behind the Tessera Rating
Value traps are cheap stocks you shouldn't own. Quality screening filters them out. Here are the factors behind the Tessera Rating, the 47-factor panel they're drawn from, which of them currently carry zero weight and why, and the gates that run independently of the score.
·14 min readRelative P/E Sector Analysis: Why Absolute Multiples Mislead
A 15x P/E stock in tech can be cheap and a 15x P/E utility can be expensive. Here's how to quantify that — and why Tessera's screener leans on sector-relative valuation.
·9 min read